Tunisians will go to the polls to vote for a Constituent Assembly

• 10 months after the collapse of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s authoritarian regime Tunisia will go to the polls emerging as a regional paradigm for a stable democratic transition. However, disputes over reform priorities, political instability, economic crisis, labor unrest, tensions between the privileged coastal region and relatively impoverished interior, and lingering insecurity remain the main challenges ahead.

• The current interim government consists of an interim President (Fouad Mebazaa), a Prime Minister (Beji Caid el Sebsi), a cabinet, and three independent reform committees including the High Commission for the Fulfillment of Revolutionary Goals, Political Reform, and Democratic Transition (henceforth called the Ben Achour Commission) which is playing a central role in overseeing the transition and preparing the country for the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) elections.

• National elections are scheduled for October 23 to select the transitional “National Constituent Assembly”. The 218-seat assembly will represent 33 electoral districts and will be charged with promulgating a new Constitution ahead of expected presidential and parliamentary elections which have not yet been scheduled. Beyond drafting a new Constitution, the NCA’s mandate is not clearly defined. On Sept. 15, the major political parties that are members of the Ben Achour Commission signed an agreement limiting the term of the assembly to one year and authorizing the assembly to appoint a new Government (so the new Constitution should be written and new elections should be held by October 2012) . However, the agreement is non-binding.

• Over 60 parties and a number of independent lists will stand in the elections. A latest opinion poll shows the relative popularity of parties has stayed roughly the same over the past few weeks, while the number of undecided voters has shrunk. Moderate Islamist party Ennahdha (the Renaissance party) – which was banned under the Ben Ali’s regime - leads with 25% of intended votes. The center-left Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) has 16% of intended votes, and their center-left rivals, Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberties (FTDL or Ettakatol), earned 14%.

• Ennahdha’s electoral program calls for constitutionalism, separation of powers, citizenship-based rights, and the protection of women’s rights. Adherence to such tenets would place it in the same league of moderate Islamist parties as the Turkey’s Justice and Development Party and its Moroccan counterpart. However it is worth to be noticed that more secular and progressive parties accuse al- Gannouchi (the leader of Ennahda) of religious dissimulation. They say that what he says and what he thinks are unrelated and that Ennahda represents itself differently depending on its media audience. On the one hand, it sells itself as a non-sectarian party that embraces the rules of democracy (fully accepting the Tunisian Civil Code, which, for example, already secures men and women’s rights); on the other it preaches veils for women and denounces democracy as a Western “contaminant” that threatens to undermine the true identity of Tunisia.

• Beyond these controversial visions, in our analysis we believe that the Ennahda’s will to create a modern party, one that looks toward the future and not the past, will prevail, though its reference point remains Islam (as those European parties that remain inspired by Christianity).Then, much like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Ennhdha will have to marginalize the more militant fringes of Islamist politics, such as the salafis – and is likely to lose some of its supporters in the process.


• These elections will not only be critical for the future prospects of democracy in Tunisia, but will have implications for the entire Middle East and North Africa**, especially after the recent death of Colonel Gaddafi. If successful, they could set an example for the rest of the region. On the other hand, if problems stemming from these elections were to derail Tunisia’s democratic transition, that could be a considerable setback for democracy across the Arab world. Yet with a reeling economy and a tenuous security situation, it is crucial that political parties work together to tackle Tunisia’s daunting challenges. These elections, therefore, are about more than selecting a constituent assembly, they will determine the prospects for genuine democracy taking hold in Tunisia.